W29 Market Review 第29周市场回顾

US Market Executive Summary美国市场摘要

Consumer inflation heats up in U.S.美国消费者通胀升温。

Key Highlights in Metrics关键指标亮点

Solid corporate earnings bolster stocks
The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index reached new records during the week, supported by solid corporate earnings reports and generally favorable economic data. The small-cap Russell 2000 was also positive, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P Midcap 400 Index ended in negative territory.
Earnings season began in earnest on Tuesday with several big banks reporting earnings. JP Morgan Chase, the largest U.S. bank, and Citigroup both reported better-than-expected results for the second quarter. Then on Thursday, well-known consumer-facing names such as PepsiCo, United Airlines, and Netflix released reports that beat forecasts.
In other company-specific news, chipmaker NVIDIA announced that it had received permission from the Trump administration to sell its H20 artificial intelligence chips to China. NVIDIA, which hit the $4 trillion market capitalization level for the first time in early July, rallied on the announcement.
企业盈利强劲提振股市
本周，标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数在强劲的企业盈利报告和普遍向好的经济数据的支持下创下新高。小型股罗素2000指数也表现积极，而道琼斯工业平均指数和标普中盘400指数则收跌。
财报季从周二开始，多家大型银行公布了业绩。JP Morgan Chase，美国最大的银行，和Citigroup均报告第二季度业绩超出预期。随后在周四，PepsiCo、United Airlines和Netflix等知名面向消费者的公司也公布了超出预期的财报。
在其他公司新闻方面，芯片制造商NVIDIA宣布已获特朗普政府批准向中国出售其H20人工智能芯片。NVIDIA股价应声上涨，其市值在七月初首次突破4万亿美元大关。

Key Earnings Beat Highlights主要业绩超预期亮点

Company公司	Result业绩表现
JP Morgan Chase & Citigroup	Better-than-expected Q2 results第二季度业绩超预期
PepsiCo, United Airlines, Netflix	Reports beat forecasts财报超预期

Inflation accelerates, while retail sales rebound
Stock investors also seemed to appreciate economic reports that pointed to consumer strength and inflation levels that, while not improving, didn’t seem too worrisome. Notably, the consumer price index (CPI) showed its biggest monthly increase in five months but generally matched consensus estimates.
通胀加速，零售销售反弹
股市投资者似乎也乐见经济报告显示消费者实力强劲，且通胀水平虽然没有改善，但似乎也并非过于令人担忧。值得注意的是，消费者物价指数（CPI）显示六月环比增幅为五个月来最大，但总体符合市场普遍预期。

Inflation & Retail Sales Overview (June)通胀与零售销售概览 (六月)

Metric指标	June MoM六月环比	May MoM五月环比	June YoY六月同比	May YoY五月同比
CPI	+0.3%	+0.1%	+2.7%	+2.4%
Core CPI	N/A		+2.9%	+2.8%
Retail Sales	+0.6%	-0.9%	N/A

CPI increased 0.3% month over month in June, up from 0.1% in May, with some economists pointing to higher tariffs as a driver of the price increases. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose 2.7%, up from May’s 2.4%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, increased 2.9% year over year, ticking up from 2.8% in May. Prices of household goods, recreational goods, and footwear have all accelerated since April. However, these increases were offset somewhat by lower car prices.
六月CPI环比增长0.3%，高于五月的0.1%，一些经济学家指出，较高的关税是物价上涨的驱动因素。同比来看，物价上涨2.7%，高于五月的2.4%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本的核心CPI同比增长2.9%，略高于五月的2.8%。自四月以来，家居用品、休闲用品和鞋类的价格均有所加速上涨。然而，这些涨幅被汽车价格下跌部分抵消。
Investors were also focused on the Census Department’s retail sales report that showed sales up a better-than-expected 0.6% in June after falling 0.9% in May. Reports that President Donald Trump was planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell put downward pressure on stocks on Wednesday, but the move was quickly reversed when Trump said he wasn’t going to remove Powell. Trump has been a fierce critic of the Fed chief as the central bank has paused further rate cuts so far this year.
投资者还关注人口普查局的零售销售报告，该报告显示六月销售额环比增长0.6%，好于预期，扭转了五月下跌0.9%的局面。有报道称，特朗普总统计划解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，这在周三给股市带来下行压力，但当特朗普表示他不会罢免鲍威尔时，这一影响迅速逆转。特朗普一直严厉批评这位美联储主席，因为央行今年迄今已暂停进一步降息。
Corporate bonds outperform Treasuries
Intermediate- and long-term U.S. Treasury yields finished the week little changed, while short-term yields marginally decreased amid speculation about Powell’s future at the Fed. (Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.) The U.S. investment-grade corporate bond market outperformed Treasuries. Investment-grade corporate issuance was in line with expectations and was largely oversubscribed.
公司债券表现优于国债
中长期美国国债收益率本周几乎没有变化，而短期收益率因对鲍威尔未来去向的猜测而小幅下降。（债券价格和收益率走势相反。）美国投资级公司债券市场表现优于国债。投资级公司债发行量符合预期，且大部分获得超额认购。

Europe Market Executive Summary欧洲市场摘要

In local currency terms, the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended roughly flat as investors watched for signs of any progress in U.S. and European trade talks. Major stock indexes were mixed. Italy’s FTSE MIB gained 0.58%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 Index were little changed. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.57%, helped partly by the depreciation of the UK pound against the U.S. dollar. A weaker pound lends support to the index because many of its companies are multinationals that generate meaningful overseas revenue. 按本币计算，泛欧STOXX Europe 600指数收盘大致持平，投资者关注美国和欧洲贸易谈判的进展迹象。主要股指涨跌不一。意大利富时MIB指数上涨0.58%，而德国DAX指数和法国CAC 40指数几乎没有变化。英国富时100指数上涨0.57%，部分得益于英镑兑美元的贬值。英镑走弱对该指数构成支撑，因为其许多成分公司是跨国企业，产生可观的海外收入。

Key Economic Data关键经济数据

UK inflation worse than expected; unemployment higher; wage growth slows
The annual rate of consumer price inflation in the UK unexpectedly rose to 3.6% in June from 3.4% in May, the fastest pace since January 2024. Higher prices for transport, especially motor fuels, drove the increase. Services inflation—a key metric for the Bank of England—stayed at 4.7%, indicating persistent underlying cost pressures. The consensus expectation had been for services inflation to ease.
英国通胀高于预期；失业率升高；工资增长放缓
英国消费者物价年通胀率六月意外从五月的3.4%上升至3.6%，为2024年一月以来最快增速。交通，尤其是汽车燃料价格上涨是主要驱动因素。服务业通胀——英国央行的关键指标——保持在4.7%，表明潜在成本压力持续存在。市场普遍预期服务业通胀将有所缓和。

UK Economic Indicators (June)英国经济指标 (六月)

Indicator指标	June Value六月数值	Previous Value (May)前值 (五月)
CPI YoY	+3.6%	+3.4%
Unemployment Rate (May)	+4.7%	+4.6%
Pay Growth excl. Bonuses	+5.0%	+5.3%

Eurozone industry output expands; trade surplus widens more than expected
Industrial production in the euro area expanded by 1.7% sequentially in May, rebounding from the 2.2% decline recorded in April and beating market expectations for a rise of 0.9%. Increased output of energy, capital goods, and nondurable consumer goods drove the expansion. Year over year, output accelerated to 3.7% from 0.2% in the prior month.
欧元区工业产出扩张；贸易顺差超出预期扩大
欧元区五月工业生产环比扩张1.7%，从四月录得的2.2%跌幅中反弹，并超出了市场预测的0.9%增长。能源、资本货物和非耐用消费品产量的增加推动了此次扩张。同比来看，产出从上月的0.2%加速至3.7%。

Eurozone Key Data (May)欧元区关键数据 (五月)

Metric指标	Value (MoM)数值 (环比)	Value (YoY)数值 (同比)
Industrial Production	+1.7%	+3.7%
Trade Surplus	EUR 16.2bn (from 12.7bn YoY)

Separately, the bloc’s trade surplus widened to EUR 16.2 billion in May from EUR 12.7 billion a year earlier, as exports rose 0.9% and imports fell 0.6%.
此外，该区域五月贸易顺差从一年前的127亿欧元扩大至162亿欧元，出口增长0.9%，进口下降0.6%。
German investor sentiment highest in three years
The ZEW index of economic sentiment in July rose for a third consecutive month, coming in at 52.7—its highest level since February 2022. Analysts in a FactSet survey had expected a reading of 50.2. The economic research institute said almost two-thirds of experts polled called for the economy to improve, thanks to potential stimulus and expectations for a speedy resolution to the European Union’s trade dispute with the U.S.
德国投资者信心创三年新高
七月ZEW经济景气指数连续第三个月上升，达到52.7——这是自2022年二月以来的最高水平。FactSet调查的分析师此前预期为50.2。经济研究所表示，近三分之二的受访专家认为经济将改善，这得益于潜在的刺激政策以及对欧盟与美国贸易争端迅速解决的预期。

Japan Market Executive Summary日本市场摘要

Japan’s stock markets registered modest gains over the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising 0.63% and the broader TOPIX Index up 0.40%. Returns were capped by political uncertainty ahead of Japan’s Upper House election on July 20, where a possible outcome could be that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition fails to retain majority control. 本周日本股市小幅上涨，日经225指数上涨0.63%，广义TOPIX指数上涨0.40%。因七月20日日本参议院选举前的政治不确定性限制了涨幅，可能的后果是首相石破茂的执政党自由民主党-公明党联盟未能保持多数控制。

Market & Economic Overview市场与经济概览

Metric指标	Value数值
Nikkei 225 Index	+0.63%
TOPIX Index	+0.40%
10-Year JGB Yield	+1.53% (from +1.49%)
JPY/USD Rate	~JPY 148 (from JPY 147.4)

Investors’ focus is likely to be on how pro-economy and reformative the new cabinet will be, as well as how dovish or hawkish a fiscal policy it adopts. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to 1.53% from 1.49% at the end of the previous week on investor expectations that the election could result in a more fiscally dovish cabinet that seeks to increase government spending. The yen weakened to around the middle of the JPY 148 against the USD range, from a prior JPY 147.4. 投资者关注点可能在于新内阁的经济友好和改革力度，以及其财政政策的鸽派或鹰派程度。由于投资者预期选举可能导致一个更鸽派的财政内阁，寻求增加政府开支，10年期日本国债收益率从上周末的1.49%升至1.53%。日元兑美元汇率从之前的147.4日元左右走弱至148日元区间的中部。 Inflation cools
Inflationary pressures showed some signs of easing, as Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.3% year on year in June, less than consensus estimates for a 3.4% increase and down from 3.7% in May. The softening in core inflation was due mainly to falling contributions from energy, reflecting government subsidies.
通胀降温
随着日本核心消费者物价指数（CPI）六月同比增长3.3%（低于市场普遍预期的3.4%增长，并低于五月的3.7%），通胀压力显示出一些缓解迹象。核心通胀的放缓主要归因于能源贡献的下降，反映了政府补贴的影响。

Inflation & Trade Data (June)通胀与贸易数据 (六月)

Metric指标	Current Value当前值	Previous Value / Consensus前值 / 共识
Core CPI YoY	+3.3%	+3.7% (May) / +3.4% (Cons.)
Exports YoY	-0.5%	+0.5% (Cons.)

On the trade front, with U.S. tariffs weighing on foreign demand, Japan’s exports fell 0.5% year on year in June, the second monthly drop and short of consensus estimates of a 0.5% increase. Exports to the U.S. declined sharply due to weaker shipments of autos, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals, and sales to China also fell. The U.S. has announced that it will implement a 25% reciprocal tariff on Japanese imports, effective August 1; however, bilateral trade talks between the two countries are ongoing, where a formal deal could be reached. 在贸易方面，由于美国关税对外部需求造成压力，日本六月出口同比下降0.5%，为连续第二个月下降，且低于市场普遍预期的0.5%增长。对美国出口因汽车、汽车零部件和药品的出货量下降而显著减少，对中国销售也出现下滑。美国已宣布将对日本进口商品实施25%的对等关税，八月1日生效；然而，两国间的双边贸易谈判仍在进行中，有望达成正式协议。

China Market Executive Summary中国市场摘要

Earnings Revisions盈利修正

S&P 500 Earnings & Revenue Consensus标普500盈利与营收共识

Comparison of analyst consensus for S&P 500 year-over-year growth between this week and last week for Earnings and Revenue.本周与上周分析师对 S&P 500 盈利和营收同比增长的共识预期对比。