2025 W31 Market Review 2025第30周市场回顾

US Market Executive Summary美国市场摘要

U.S. job growth slows in July; May and June data revised lower.美国7月份就业增长放缓；5月和6月数据下调。

Key Market & Economic Data关键市场与经济数据

Stocks decline on renewed tariffs, trade policy uncertainty, and weak economic data
U.S. stock indexes posted losses in what ended as the worst week for some indexes since the tariff-driven sell-off in early April. Smaller-cap indexes fared worst as the Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap 400 indexes fell 4.17% and 3.53%, respectively, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (down 2.92%) and S&P 500 Index (down 2.36%). The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite held up best (down 2.17%) and maintained its year-to-date lead over the other major indexes.
Trade deals and tariffs were a major driver of sentiment throughout the week leading up to President Donald Trump’s arbitrary August 1 deadline for new deals. On Thursday, President Trump signed an executive order to raise tariffs on the vast majority of U.S. trading partners, effective August 7, which appeared to weigh heavily on stock indexes Friday morning. Other announcements during the week included new deals with several trading partners, including the European Union (EU) and South Korea, as well as another 90-day negotiation period extension for Mexico.
Earnings headlines were another major focal point during the week. According to data from FactSet, of the 66% of S&P 500 companies that have reported through Friday morning, 82% have beaten consensus earnings estimates, with a blended earnings growth rate of 10.3%. However, several companies warned that tariff headwinds are weighing on their businesses, including Ford Motor, which said it expects to take a USD 2 billion hit from tariffs this year. Meanwhile, shares of Microsoft and Meta Platforms both traded higher in the wake of their better-than-expected results, with both companies noting tailwinds from artificial intelligence.
关税重燃、贸易政策不确定性以及经济数据疲软导致股市下跌
美国股指录得下跌，对一些指数而言，这是自4月初关税引发的抛售以来最糟糕的一周。小型股指数表现最差，罗素2000指数和标普中盘400指数分别下跌4.17%和3.53%，紧随其后的是道琼斯工业平均指数（下跌2.92%）和标普500指数（下跌2.36%）。科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数表现最好（下跌2.17%），并保持了今年以来对其他主要指数的领先地位。
在本周，贸易协议和关税是主导市场情绪的主要因素，直至唐纳德·特朗普总统设定的8月1日新协议截止日期。周四，特朗普总统签署行政命令，自8月7日起对绝大多数美国贸易伙伴提高关税，这似乎在周五上午对股指造成了沉重压力。本周的其他公告包括与欧盟和韩国等多个贸易伙伴达成新协议，以及墨西哥又获得了90天的谈判延期。
盈利新闻是本周的另一个主要焦点。根据FactSet的数据，截至周五上午，已报告业绩的标普500公司中，66%已公布，其中82%超出了市场普遍预期，综合盈利增长率为10.3%。然而，包括福特汽车在内的多家公司警告称，关税阻力正在对其业务造成影响，福特表示预计今年将因此损失20亿美元。与此同时，微软和Meta Platforms的股价在公布超出预期的业绩后均上涨，两家公司都指出人工智能带来的利好。
Fed holds rates steady for fifth consecutive meeting; inflation accelerates
The Federal Reserve concluded its July monetary policy meeting on Wednesday and, as was widely expected, maintained its target policy rate at a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Notably, two Fed governors dissented, preferring to immediately lower rates by a quarter point, and the central bank’s post-meeting statement noted that “economic activity moderated in the first half of the year,” which some market participants viewed as dovish developments.
However, in a press conference following the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that inflation remained above the Fed’s target and reiterated the central bank’s willingness to wait for data to determine monetary policy decisions, which appeared to shift market sentiment and sent expectations for a September rate cut lower on Wednesday afternoon.
Meanwhile, data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday indicated that inflation picked up in June. The BEA’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index—the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—rose 0.3% month over month in June, accelerating from May’s reading of 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose 2.8%, remaining solidly ahead of the Fed’s long-term inflation target of 2%.
The BEA also reported that the U.S. economy grew 3% in the second quarter, a sharp increase from the first quarter’s 0.5% decline, largely driven by a steep drop in imports, which subtract from the BEA’s calculation of gross domestic product (GDP).
美联储连续第五次会议维持利率不变；通胀加速
美联储于周三结束了其7月份的货币政策会议，正如市场普遍预期，维持目标政策利率在4.25%至4.50%的区间。值得注意的是，有两位美联储理事持异议，倾向于立即降息25个基点，且央行会后声明指出“上半年经济活动有所放缓”，一些市场参与者认为这是鸽派发展。
然而，在会后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔指出通胀仍高于美联储目标，并重申央行愿意等待数据来决定货币政策决策，这似乎改变了市场情绪，导致周三下午对9月份降息的预期下降。
与此同时，经济分析局（BEA）周四发布的数据显示，6月份通胀加速。BEA的核心个人消费支出（PCE）指数——美联储首选的通胀衡量指标——6月份环比上涨0.3%，较5月份的0.2%有所加速。同比来看，物价上涨2.8%，稳固地高于美联储2%的长期通胀目标。
BEA还报告称，美国经济在第二季度增长3%，较第一季度0.5%的下降大幅增加，这主要得益于进口的急剧下降，进口在BEA的国内生产总值（GDP）计算中是减项。
July jobs report shows deteriorating labor market
On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, well below consensus estimates for a gain of around 115,000. The readings for May and June were also revised down by a total of 258,000, bringing the three-month total to just 106,000 jobs, indicating that the labor market has cooled much more significantly than many had thought in recent months. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, in line with estimates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market expectations for a rate cut in September jumped in response to the report, rebounding sharply after declining in the wake of the Fed meeting on Wednesday.
The worse-than-expected data—along with new tariff announcements—helped send U.S. Treasury yields across most maturities lower on Friday, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note falling nearly 0.16 percentage point to 4.22%.
7月份就业报告显示劳动力市场恶化
周五，劳工部报告称，美国经济7月份仅新增7.3万个就业岗位，远低于市场普遍预期的约11.5万个。5月和6月的数据也总计下调了25.8万个，使得三个月的新增就业总数仅为10.6万个，表明劳动力市场在最近几个月降温的程度远超许多人的预期。失业率小幅升至4.2%，符合预期。根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的FedWatch工具，市场对9月份降息的预期因这份报告而飙升，在周三美联储会议后下降后出现大幅反弹。
这份差于预期的数据——加上新的关税公告——导致周五多数期限的美国国债收益率走低，基准10年期美国国债收益率下跌近0.16个百分点至4.22%。

Europe Market Executive Summary欧洲市场摘要

Key Market & Economic Data关键市场与经济数据

In local currency terms, the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 2.57% lower amid disappointment with the framework trade deal between the U.S. and the EU. Major stock indexes fell. France’s CAC 40 Index declined 3.68%, Germany’s DAX lost 3.27%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB dipped 1.92%. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index eased 0.57%, partly supported by the depreciation of the UK pound against the U.S. dollar. A weaker pound lends support to the index because many of its companies are multinationals that generate meaningful overseas revenue. 按本币计算，泛欧STOXX Europe 600指数下跌2.57%，原因是市场对美国和欧盟之间的框架贸易协议感到失望。主要股指均下跌。法国CAC 40指数下跌3.68%，德国DAX指数下跌3.27%，意大利富时MIB指数下跌1.92%。英国富时100指数下跌0.57%，部分受到英镑兑美元贬值的支撑。英镑走弱对该指数构成支撑，因为其许多成分公司是跨国企业，产生可观的海外收入。

Eurozone data point to steady but still stagnant economy
Resilient eurozone data for GDP, inflation, and economic sentiment appeared to reduce pressure on the European Central Bank to lower interest rates again. Headline inflation held steady at 2.0% in July, matching the European Central Bank’s target but coming in slightly higher than the 1.9% predicted by analysts. Core inflation, excluding volatile energy, food, and tobacco prices, held at 2.3%. Meanwhile, GDP expanded 0.1% in the second quarter compared with the previous three months. While the growth rate was less than the 0.6% registered in the first quarter—when exports surged ahead of a change in U.S. tariff policy—it exceeded the no-growth outcome forecast by analysts in a FactSet survey. Year over year, economic output grew 1.4%, slightly less than the 1.5% in the same period of 2024 but more than a projected 1.3%.
Separately, the jobless rate in the euro area remained at a record low of 6.2% in June, unchanged from May’s figure. In Germany, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 6.3%—still the highest level since September 2020. In addition, the bloc’s economic sentiment indicator strengthened in July, with the upturn driven by higher confidence in industry, services, and retail trade. Consumers were slightly more optimistic as well.
欧元区数据表明经济稳健但仍停滞
欧元区GDP、通胀和经济情绪的弹性数据似乎减轻了欧洲央行再次降息的压力。7月份总体通胀维持在2.0%，与欧洲央行目标一致，但略高于分析师预期的1.9%。剔除波动较大的能源、食品和烟草价格的核心通胀维持在2.3%。与此同时，第二季度GDP环比增长0.1%。尽管增长率低于第一季度0.6%的增速（当时出口在美国关税政策变化前激增），但超出了FactSet调查中分析师预测的零增长结果。同比来看，经济产出增长1.4%，略低于2024年同期1.5%，但高于预期的1.3%。
此外，欧元区6月份失业率保持在6.2%的历史低位，与5月份的数据持平。在德国，经季节调整后的失业率保持在6.3%——仍是自2020年9月以来的最高水平。此外，7月份欧元区的经济景气指数增强，这得益于工业、服务业和零售贸易信心的提高。消费者也略显乐观。
UK housing market picks up after tax expiry hiccup
The UK Nationwide House Price Index in July rose 0.6% sequentially, rebounding from a 0.9% decline in June. Bank of England data showed that British lenders approved more mortgages for house purchases than expected in July.
英国房地产市场在税收优惠到期后回升
英国全国房价指数7月份环比上涨0.6%，从6月份0.9%的跌幅中反弹。英格兰银行数据显示，英国贷款机构7月份批准的购房抵押贷款数量超出预期。
EU and U.S. strike trade deal
The European Union and the U.S. reached a framework deal on trade, although many key details remain unresolved. The agreement includes a 15% tariff on most European exports to the U.S., half the rate initially mooted. The U.S. will keep a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum for the time being.
欧盟和美国达成贸易协议
欧盟和美国达成了一项贸易框架协议，尽管许多关键细节仍未解决。该协议包括对大多数欧洲输美商品征收15%的关税，这是最初提议税率的一半。美国目前将继续对钢铁和铝征收50%的关税。

Japan Market Executive Summary日本市场摘要

Key Market & Economic Data关键市场与经济数据

Japan’s stock markets fell over the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index losing 1.58% and the broader TOPIX Index down 0.11%. The Japanese technology segment was weak amid some unfavorable earnings developments, and renewed global trade tensions weighed on sentiment. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond fell to 1.55% from 1.59% at the end of the previous week. 本周日本股市下跌，日经225指数下跌1.58%，广义TOPIX指数下跌0.11%。日本科技板块在一些不利的盈利发展和全球贸易紧张局势重燃的背景下表现疲软，压低了市场情绪。10年期日本国债收益率从上周末的1.59%跌至1.55%。 The yen weakened past JPY 150 against the U.S. dollar, from the JPY 147 range at the end of the prior week, hovering around its lowest levels in four months. This prompted Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato to express alarm at foreign exchange movements, including those driven by speculators, and to again emphasize that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. 日元兑美元汇率跌破150日元，从上周末的147日元区间跌至四个月来的最低水平。这促使日本财务大臣加藤胜信对汇率波动表示担忧，包括那些由投机者驱动的波动，并再次强调货币以反映基本面的稳定方式波动的重要性。 Bank of Japan holds rates, raises inflation forecasts
As expected, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.5% at its July 30–31 monetary policy meeting. In its quarterly outlook, the central bank revised up its expectations for inflation, forecasting that the core consumer price index (CPI) will increase 2.7% in fiscal 2025, up from the 2.2% forecast in April, reflecting persistent increases in food prices. It also revised up slightly its CPI forecasts for fiscal 2026 and 2027. The bank expects real GDP to grow 0.6% in fiscal 2025, up slightly from the 0.5% previously forecast.
The bank cited as a main risk the evolving situation regarding trade and other policies in each jurisdiction but acknowledged positive developments such as the negotiations between Japan and the U.S. resulting in an agreement. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the likelihood of the bank’s outlook being realized has increased somewhat, leading some investors to converge around the view that the central bank could raise interest rates later this year. The bank continued to assert that if economic activity and prices develop in line with its forecasts, it will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.
日本央行维持利率不变，上调通胀预测
正如预期，日本央行（BoJ）在其7月30日至31日的货币政策会议上维持关键利率在0.5%不变。在其季度展望中，央行上调了通胀预期，预测2025财年核心消费者物价指数（CPI）将增长2.7%，高于4月份预测的2.2%，反映出食品价格持续上涨。央行还小幅上调了2026和2027财年的CPI预测。央行预计2025财年实际GDP将增长0.6%，略高于此前预测的0.5%。
央行指出，贸易和其他政策在各个司法管辖区不断演变的情况是一个主要风险，但也承认了积极的发展，例如日本和美国之间的谈判达成了协议。日本央行行长植田和男表示，央行展望实现的可能性有所增加，导致一些投资者倾向于认为央行可能在今年晚些时候加息。央行继续声明，如果经济活动和物价发展符合其预测，将继续上调政策利率并调整货币宽松程度。
Robust industrial production and retail sales in June
In economic data developments, Japan’s industrial production rose 1.7% month over month in June, outpacing market expectations of a 0.6% decline and following a 0.1% decline in May. Retail sales rose 2.0% year on year in June, ahead of an expected 1.8% increase and following a 1.9% rise in May.
6月份工业生产和零售销售强劲
在经济数据方面，日本6月份工业生产环比增长1.7%，超出了市场预期的0.6%下降，此前5月份下降了0.1%。6月份零售销售同比增长2.0%，高于预期的1.8%增长，此前5月份增长了1.9%。

China Market Executive Summary中国市场摘要

Key Market & Economic Data关键市场与经济数据

CSI 300 Index沪深300指数

-1.75%

Shanghai Composite上证综指

-0.94%

Hang Seng Index恒生指数

-3.47%

S&P Global PMI (July)标普全球PMI(7月)

49.5

Official PMI (July)官方PMI(7月)

49.3

Mainland Chinese stock markets retreated after the new U.S. tariff rates darkened the global growth outlook and a batch of data suggested a slowdown in China’s economy. The onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index declined 1.75% and the Shanghai Composite Index shed 0.94% in local currency terms, according to FactSet. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 3.47%.
在中国新的美国关税税率使全球增长前景蒙上阴影，以及一批数据暗示中国经济放缓之后，中国大陆股市回落。根据FactSet的数据，以本币计算，在岸基准沪深300指数下跌1.75%，上海综合指数下跌0.94%。在香港，基准恒生指数下跌3.47%。
The S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for China fell to 49.5 in July, below the 50 level that indicates a contraction, versus June’s 50.4 reading. Friday’s S&P reading, a private survey, was worse than economists’ forecasts and came a day after the official PMI showed that factory activity weakened to 49.3 in July, a three-month low. The official PMI also lagged forecasts. High temperatures, heavy rain, and flooding in some regions that disrupted manufacturing were the reasons for July’s deterioration, China’s statistics bureau said in a statement accompanying Thursday’s data.
中国7月份标普全球制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）降至49.5，低于50的收缩线，而6月份为50.4。周五的标普数据（一项私人调查）逊于经济学家预测，且在官方PMI显示7月份工厂活动减弱至49.3（三个月低点）的次日公布。官方PMI也低于预期。中国统计局在周四发布数据时附带的声明中表示，高温、强降雨和一些地区的洪涝灾害扰乱了制造业，是7月份恶化的原因。
The latest PMI data suggested that China’s economy could see slower growth in the coming months amid still-weak domestic demand and global trade uncertainty. Front-loading by Chinese exporters ahead of expected U.S. tariff hikes, shipments to non-U.S. markets, and fiscal stimulus at home kept China’s economy buoyant in the year’s first half. But many economists expect that the momentum in the economy will slow as the impact of these tailwinds diminishes.
最新的PMI数据表明，在内需依然疲软和全球贸易不确定性的背景下，未来几个月中国经济增速可能放缓。中国出口商在预期美国关税上调前提前出货，对非美国市场的出货量以及国内财政刺激措施，使得中国经济在上半年保持活跃。但许多经济学家预计，随着这些利好因素的影响减弱，经济增长势头将放缓。

Earnings Revisions盈利修正

S&P 500 Earnings & Revenue Consensus标普500盈利与营收共识

Comparison of analyst consensus for S&P 500 year-over-year growth between this week and last week for Earnings and Revenue.本周与上周分析师对 S&P 500 盈利和营收同比增长的共识预期对比。

Analysts Upgraded Q3 S&P 500 EPS Expectation Slightly分析师略微上调了标普500第三季度每股收益预期

• Despite market concerns about tariffs, analysts did not downgrade S&P 500 Q3 EPS expectations more than usual.尽管市场担忧关税问题，分析师并未比平时更多地下调标普500公司第三季度的每股收益预期。
• In July, analysts slightly upgraded S&P 500 Q3 EPS expectations.在7月份，分析师反而略微上调了标普500公司第三季度的每股收益预期。
  • Q3 bottom-up EPS estimate increased from $67.32 on June 30 to $67.40 on July 31, an increase of 0.1%.第三季度自下而上每股收益估值从6月30日的$67.32美元增至7月31日的$67.40美元，上涨了0.1%。
• Historical Comparison: In a typical quarter, analysts usually lower earnings estimates in the first month of the quarter.历史对比：在典型的季度中，分析师通常会在季度第一个月下调盈利预期。
  • Average decrease over the past 5 years (20 quarters) was 0.5%.过去5年（20个季度）平均降幅为0.5%。
  • Average decrease over the past 10 years (40 quarters) was 1.6%.过去10年（40个季度）平均降幅为1.6%。
  • Average decrease over the past 15 years (60 quarters) was 1.7%.过去15年（60个季度）平均降幅为1.7%。
  • Average decrease over the past 20 years (80 quarters) was 1.9%.过去20年（80个季度）平均降幅为1.9%。
• Q3 2025 is the first time analysts have collectively raised EPS expectations in the first month of a quarter since Q2 2024 (+0.7%).2025年第三季度是自2024年第二季度（+0.7%）以来，分析师首次在季度首月整体上调每股收益预期。
• Industry Level: 5 out of 11 industries saw Q3 2025 bottom-up EPS estimates upgraded between June 30 and July 31, led by Energy (+3.8%).行业层面：在11个行业中，有5个行业在6月30日至7月31日期间的2025年第三季度自下而上每股收益预期被上调，其中能源（+3.8%）板块领涨。
  • Another 6 industries saw EPS estimates downgraded, with Health Care leading the decline (-5.2%).另有6个行业每股收益预期下调，其中医疗保健（-5.2%）板块领跌。
• Full-Year Expectation: Analysts also raised full-year earnings expectations.全年预期：分析师也上调了全年盈利预期。
  • From June 30 to July 31, CY 2025 bottom-up EPS estimate increased from $264.17 to $265.66, an increase of 0.6%.从6月30日到7月31日，2025财年自下而上每股收益预期从$264.17美元增至$265.66美元，上涨了0.6%。

Market Punishes Negative EPS Surprises Severely市场对负面每股收益意外的惩罚力度远超平均水平

• Market reward for positive earnings surprises for Q2 2025 S&P 500 companies was slightly below average.市场对2025年第二季度标普500公司正面盈利意外的奖励略低于平均水平。
  • Companies reporting positive earnings surprises saw an average stock price increase of 0.9% from two days before to two days after the earnings release.报告正面盈利意外的公司，在财报发布前两天至发布后两天的平均股价上涨0.9%。
  • This gain was slightly below the 5-year average (1.0%).这一涨幅略低于5年平均水平（1.0%）。
• Market punishment for negative earnings surprises was significantly above average.市场对负面盈利意外的惩罚力度远超平均水平。
  • Companies reporting negative earnings surprises saw an average stock price decrease of 5.6% from two days before to two days after the earnings release.报告负面盈利意外的公司，在财报发布前两天至发布后两天的平均股价下跌5.6%。
  • This decline was significantly greater than the 5-year average (2.4%).这一跌幅远大于5年平均水平（2.4%）。
• Case of Negative EPS Surprise: Intel reported Q2 non-GAAP EPS of -$0.10 on July 24, below the average estimate of $0.01.负面每股收益意外案例：Intel于7月24日报告第二季度非GAAP每股收益为-$0.10美元，低于平均估值$0.01美元。
  • From July 22 to July 28, Intel's stock price fell 11.0% (from $23.24 to $20.68).从7月22日到7月28日，Intel股价下跌11.0%（从$23.24美元跌至$20.68美元）。
• Reasons for severe market reaction to negative EPS surprises:市场对负面每股收益意外反应剧烈的原因：
  • Not due to deterioration in Q3 earnings outlook: Analysts slightly upgraded Q3 2025 EPS expectations in July (+0.1%).并非由于第三季度盈利前景的恶化：分析师在7月份略微上调了2025年第三季度的每股收益预期（上涨0.1%）。
  • Proportion of negative EPS guidance is below average:负面每股收益指引比例低于平均水平：
    • As of now, 57 S&P 500 companies have issued Q3 2025 EPS guidance.截至目前，有57家标普500公司发布了2025年第三季度的每股收益指引。
    • Among them, 30 issued negative guidance, and 27 issued positive guidance.其中，30家发布了负面指引，27家发布了正面指引。
    • The proportion of companies with negative guidance is 53% (30 / 57), which is below the 5-year average (57%) and 10-year average (61%).负面指引公司占比为53%（30家 / 57家），低于5年平均（57%）和10年平均（61%）。